The first step
of the parameter estimation process was estimation of the intrinsic growth rates ψ, maximum densities K and lag-phase λ. They were estimated from single culture experiments 1a-j and separately for mixed culture experiments 2a-b. The learn more estimates of the growth parameters from experiments 2a-b were used for the estimation of the conjugation coefficients (γ D and γ T ) and in the simulation of the long term experiment (see section Long term behaviour), because these experiments were also mixed culture experiments. We fitted the model with separate ψ and K for each population D, R, and T (across all experiments 1 or 2), with only separate ψ for each population, with only separate
K for each population, or with no separate parameters for each population. The initial concentration N 0 and the lag-phase parameter λ were estimated TH-302 separately for each experiment, or for each initial concentration. The second step was estimation of the rate of plasmid loss Buparlisib concentration from experiment 1i. From this culture 94 colonies were selected and tested for the presence of the plasmid at 4, 8, and 24 h. The number of 94 colonies was chosen for practical reasons. To estimate the plasmid loss parameters we assumed that the rate of conjugation is negligible when the population without plasmid is very small. Furthermore based on the results of experiments 1a-j (Table 1), we assumed equal
growth rates and maximum densities for recipient R and transconjugant T. Table 1 Estimates from single population experiments (experiment 1) of the intrinsic growth rate ( ψ ), maximum density ( K ), lag-phase ( λ ) and initial concentration ( N 0 ) Parameter Value 95% confidence interval AICc* Best fitting model -19.36 ψ 2.04 h-1 (1.95 – 2.14) K 9.1 108 cfu/ml (8.0 108 – 10.4 108) λ 102** 0.71 h (0.41 – 1.08) λ 106*** 1.30 h (0.90 – 1.72) N 0 102** 0.8 102 cfu/ml (0.5 102 – 1.2 102) N 0 106*** 0.9 106 cfu/ml (0.5 106 – 1.6 106) Full model -15.13 ψ R 2.04 h-1 (1.95 – 2.14) ψ T 2.09 h-1 (2.00 – 2.19) ψ D 2.09 h-1 (2.00 – 2.19) K R 10.7 108 cfu/ml (8.2 108 – 58.6 108) K T 10.0 108 cfu/ml (7.0 108 – 14.3 108) K D 7.6 108 cfu/ml (5.3 108 – 10.9 108) λ 102** 0.71 h (0.41 – 1.08) λ 106*** 1.28 h (0.89 – 1.70) N 0 102** clonidine 0.8 102 cfu/ml (0.5 102 – 1.2 102) N 0 106*** 0.9 106 cfu/ml (0.5 106 – 1.6 106) *AICc = Akaike’s Information Criterion (AIC) corrected for a finite sample size n. AICc = AIC + 2 k (k + 1)/(n-k-1), in which k is the number of parameters in the model. **Estimate for experiments with a start culture of 102 cfu/ml. ***Estimate for experiments with a start culture of 106 cfu/ml. The full model estimates different parameters ψ and K for each population (D, R or T) and different parameters λ and N 0 based on the concentration of the start culture.