Our results can help clinicians in their decision of whether to continue PEG-IFN therapy based on an individual patient’s probability of nonresponse. PEG-IFN can induce

an off-treatment sustained response in a substantial proportion selleckchem of patients with HBeAg-positive CHB,12–15 but its clinical use is compromised by the frequent occurrence of side-effects26 and the uncertainty as to whether a patient will actually benefit from this therapy. Reliable prediction of nonresponse at baseline or during the first weeks of therapy is therefore essential to optimal utilization of this agent. Recently, a baseline prediction model has been published, based on data from the two largest studies involving PEG-IFN in HBeAg-positive CHB.24 The model enables the clinician to predict response (HBeAg loss and HBV selleck DNA < 2000 IU/mL [∼10,000 copies/mL]) of HBeAg-positive patients to PEG-IFN, based on readily available data, such as HBV genotype, HBV DNA and ALT levels, age, and sex. Although the model provides considerable support when considering a patient for PEG-IFN therapy, substantial uncertainty remains as to whether an individual patient will respond to a 1-year course of PEG-IFN. On-treatment monitoring of viral

replication using HBV DNA, HBeAg and HBsAg levels may aid decision-making and frequent HBV DNA monitoring is therefore recommended in treatment guidelines.3 However, modeling of HBV DNA kinetics during PEG-IFN therapy has shown only limited clinical utility,27, 28 and reliable prediction of nonresponse is only possible at week 24 of therapy (NPV = 86%).29 Recent technical advances have allowed for the quantitative assessment of HBsAg in serum. HBsAg is secreted from the hepatocyte during viral replication as part of the HBV nucleocapsid, or as part of noninfectious

viral particles.30 Several studies have reported that serum HBsAg levels correlate with intrahepatic cccDNA levels in HBeAg-positive patients.21, 31 On-treatment HBsAg decline may therefore reflect the medchemexpress efficacy of PEG-IFN in decreasing intrahepatic cccDNA and consequently predict a sustained response.21, 31 This hypothesis was first tested in patients who are HBeAg-negative, and it was found that patients with low HBsAg levels at the end of treatment had the highest probability of achieving a sustained off-treatment response.32 Furthermore, another study showed that patients who did not achieve a 0.5 log decline in serum HBsAg from baseline to week 12 of therapy had only 10% probability of achieving a response (NPV = 90%).33 Our observations in HBeAg-positive patients corroborate these results on the excellent predictive capabilities of on-treatment HBsAg decline. In our study population, patients who did not achieve a decline in serum HBsAg concentration from baseline to week 12 of therapy had only 3% chance of achieving a sustained off-treatment response.